The Five Rules of Risk

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Animation by Josh Sherrington
Sound by Graham Haerther (www.Haerther.net)
Thumbnail by Simon Buckmaster
Music by epidemicsound.com
Select footage courtesy the AP Archive
References:
[1] www.cdc.gov/motorvehiclesafety/pedestrian_safety/index.html
[2] www.statista.com/statistics/198029/total-number-of-us-licensed-drivers-by-state/
[3] www.statista.com/statistics/191660/fatality-rate-per-100000-licensed-drivers-in-the-us-since-1988/
[4] www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6843304/
[5] www.cmu.edu/epp/people/faculty/research/PS%20FSLRC%20HowSafe.pdf
[6] www-jstor-org.ezproxy.is.ed.ac.uk/stable/pdf/1727970.pdf?refreqid=excelsior%3Ac48a7fe2f9c0fedf29cba859db4daebd
[7] www.cmu.edu/epp/people/faculty/research/PS%20FSLRC%20HowSafe.pdf
[8] journal.sjdm.org/7303a/jdm7303a.htm

Komente

  • Wendover Productions
    Wendover Productions12 ditë më parë

    We got some math wrong. The annual fatality odds for licensed drivers in the US is actually 1 in 6,000 which translates to lifetime odds of about 1 in 75.

  • Kairat Dochshanov

    Kairat Dochshanov

    3 orë më parë

    Hey, just wanted to let you know that the table with 30 activities in rule 4 does not have number 30, instead, number 6 is listed twice) That kinda distracted me till the end of the video

  • Peter V

    Peter V

    3 ditë më parë

    That is probably big enough, that you should fix the video or at least do an overlay and note in the description.

  • Samtember

    Samtember

    4 ditë më parë

    Yeah you can't leave this video up with that massive of an error bro. You have to change it. Great video though. Really important rn.

  • Jeff Timmerberg

    Jeff Timmerberg

    5 ditë më parë

    So are we overestimating or underestimating the coronavirus risk?

  • CptKirk FPV

    CptKirk FPV

    6 ditë më parë

    @panzerveps not true...

  • 劇場X リミックス (Theaterxremix)
    劇場X リミックス (Theaterxremix)3 orë më parë

    Food colouring is going to be the earths demise

  • En Passant
    En Passant6 orë më parë

    Rule #1 is a moot point. I like my odds driving because I feel like I'm a good driver and can avoid risks. The problem is everyone thinks they are a good driver.

  • NAZMUS SAKIB TONMOY
    NAZMUS SAKIB TONMOY8 orë më parë

    Did a cybertruck ran over the man?

  • Ethan's Universe
    Ethan's Universe13 orë më parë

    Hey wendover, do you think you could do Every country EVER. If its too hard, you do t have to do it. I just wanted to let you know about that idea i had

  • Alex Worden
    Alex Worden14 orë më parë

    Yeah, the moment that it's not interesting at all has come. Actually long time ago, I'm was just being lazy unsubscribing.

  • s4098429
    s409842922 orë më parë

    This is not a good video. Simplifying anything complicated like driving or nuclear power to one fraction is extremely misleading to the point dishonest uselessness. Equating driving to throwing a dice is obviously nonsense, but this is what these statistics do. The risk from driving is better understood by looking at many other factors, such as: the age of the driver, the time of day, the season, the traffic, the intoxication of the driver, the speed, the vehicle and many more. Similar nonsense is brought out when speaking of death by shark. Sure few people die from sharks, but that’s because most of us aren’t in the ocean, most humans can’t swim.

  • Mr Bizzaros
    Mr BizzarosDitë më parë

    "You do walk outside" Me, an introvert:

  • luca exe
    luca exeDitë më parë

    Very nice video, I learned a lot.

  • afutla qian

    afutla qian

    19 orë më parë

    why does he sound and talk like Half As Interesting?

  • bocoy noiu
    bocoy noiuDitë më parë

    "Staying at home is safe" Looks at 'Another' Hmm yes I sure hope no construction vehicle crushes me while I'm on my PC

  • Internet Explorer
    Internet ExplorerDitë më parë

    Change the first letter of the channel's name for "B" and now it sound like a porn site.

  • bocoy noiu

    bocoy noiu

    Ditë më parë

    I walk outside because life wouldn't be life if I didn't as to say I wouldn't call it life if there was no walking outside

  • AdamNetherton
    AdamNethertonDitë më parë

    What the heck is this? First off: I thought this was going to be about the board game Risk. Second: As a Christian I don't walk outside evaluating my chances of making it through the day. I have no logical fear of death. I might be scared temporarily if I see death coming or feel death is about to happen... But as a Christian I know that, "To die is to gain." I will be going to see my Father in Heaven when I leave this Earth. So I am not afraid to go outside. lol

  • Arvind Jiji Antony
    Arvind Jiji Antony2 ditë më parë

    It just had to be a Cyber truck. Didn't it?

  • Khanh Pham
    Khanh Pham2 ditë më parë

    can't agree more on your last statement!!!!!

  • Logan Lovell
    Logan Lovell2 ditë më parë

    wendover productions has become a philosopher....now we must call it whydover productions

  • kolim jone

    kolim jone

    Ditë më parë

    mountain biking the fatality rate of mountain biking would increase much more sharply than for driving if everyone started driving

  • Formata Gfys
    Formata Gfys2 ditë më parë

    Why u use the tesla pick up as the model for car?

  • kolim jone

    kolim jone

    Ditë më parë

    if i were to mountain bike id be much more likely to die than if i were to drive. you frame the statistic as if driving was more dangerous but: the average driver drives many man

  • Slithermotion
    Slithermotion2 ditë më parë

    <a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="490">8:10</a> Ok Ok....Am I the only one who misses the number 16?

  • Marc o
    Marc o2 ditë më parë

    This explains why people fear 5G

  • Shakra Nandi
    Shakra Nandi2 ditë më parë

    Wow Wendover this video is great! You've not only set the record straight on that nuclear power video from a few years ago but also put the problem we are witnessing all over to such a succinct point: "when people somehow, get to decide what risk others face, perception is dangerous because it can silently and unknowingly eclipse science, statistics and fact"

  • PenguinGamingTV
    PenguinGamingTV2 ditë më parë

    You should do a video how to make a cargo airline

  • LoloiloCptPouts
    LoloiloCptPouts3 ditë më parë

    lot of math are kinda wrong, also didn't take under consideration the amount of people in each activity. statistics can lie when you use tham in such one dimensional way.

  • Ktm S
    Ktm S3 ditë më parë

    Because there are millions of people driving versus just few thousands who do mountain biking

  • Forrest Charles
    Forrest Charles3 ditë më parë

    dang I MTB every single day and plan to never own a car 🤷

  • homei
    homei3 ditë më parë

    why does he sound and talk like Half As Interesting?

  • James Harmon
    James Harmon3 ditë më parë

    "one death is a tragedy, a million deaths is a statistic" Joseph Stalin

  • DasNotizPapier
    DasNotizPapier3 ditë më parë

    <a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="610">10:10</a> reminds me of a quote allegedly by stalin: "One death is a tragedy; a million deaths a statistic."

  • Iqbal Hassan
    Iqbal Hassan4 ditë më parë

    I walk outside because life wouldn't be life if I didn't as to say I wouldn't call it life if there was no walking outside

  • Emil P
    Emil P4 ditë më parë

    PLEASE LEARN ABOUT DE-ESSING and improve your videos

  • Six Dawg 18
    Six Dawg 184 ditë më parë

    Isn’t it great that he uses a cyber truck as his example of a car🤣🤣

  • bibasik7
    bibasik74 ditë më parë

    <a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="71">1:11</a> But there's a VERY low chance of being hit by a Cybertruck, considering that it hasn't been released yet.

  • Collin yan
    Collin yan4 ditë më parë

    if i were to mountain bike id be much more likely to die than if i were to drive. you frame the statistic as if driving was more dangerous but: the average driver drives many many more miles than the average mountain biker. and the average mountain biker is much more skilled at mountain biking than the average driver. and if everyone was to start mountain biking the fatality rate of mountain biking would increase much more sharply than for driving if everyone started driving

  • Fallen Pastabean
    Fallen Pastabean4 ditë më parë

    <a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="170">2:50</a> you forgot to consider the fact that in any given area at a given moment, the factor for the car being in a more dangerous scenario is higher simply because there are more cars in a given area moving at high speeds than there are bikes. When bikes match the number of car population, then the numbers would relatively equal. For ever 10 car drivers, it's reasonable to assume that at least 7 of them drive with no fuss, just going from point A to point B. The 3 of those 10 however, could have possibly been the ones who contributed to car crashes as they perhaps were those to either drive wrecklessly or drunk drive. The point is, we also have to evaluate these two vehicle's usage and the nature in which they are more likely to be used. Its simply evident in your video examples wherein cars were simply driving about while the mountain bikers will tend to flip around and do "dangerous" leaps onto rocks. I can assure you, of a comparison between 1000 regular cars, going about doing their city driving, and a group of 50 kids intentionally trying crazy stunts on a mountain bike, there will be more injuries with that group of kids. Again, it doesn't have much to do with the "vehicle" perse, it's merely a factor of sheer number of them and the ways in which they are being used, that increases the chance of unwanted combinations of possibilities (crashing, falling off into a cliff, etc.). Now take that previous example of 50 stunt-driven kids and push them to 1000 to equal those of cars. Now you tell me if 1000 stunt-daring kids are less likely to be injured than 1000 regular-driving parents or perhaps elderly people simply going to the grocery.

  • M Groh
    M Groh4 ditë më parë

    My takeaway from this video was about masks - in the end he shows people walking with masks and a few without. The people who choose not to wear them think they are only choosing a risk for themselves when in fact, because covid-19 can be without symptoms for days, they are choosing the risk of others too.

  • Westjet 003
    Westjet 0034 ditë më parë

    Now I dont want to walk outside

  • fin thehuman
    fin thehuman4 ditë më parë

    mountain biking has a lesser risk than driving a car because although the number of people mountain biking is high. it is still significantly lower than the number of people driving a car.

  • sor3999
    sor39994 ditë më parë

    I knew this video would get to that conclusion.

  • abbsnn cose

    abbsnn cose

    4 ditë më parë

    Interesting topic. But very subjective as with anything psychological

  • Gerbert Heller
    Gerbert Heller5 ditë më parë

    I.e. COVID-19 is NOT risky. The lockdown will eventually kill more people and break the lives of billions.

  • abbsnn cose

    abbsnn cose

    4 ditë më parë

    Covid scamdemic brought me here. Oh lets kill Fauci and Gates. Seriously.

  • Shaldis
    Shaldis5 ditë më parë

    While I agree with the general concept and you later in the video do say that this list is not complete, I have one question regarding your first point that is decoupled from your argument: Do you think the low risk of mountainbiking could be correlated to the fact that those who do this activity are generally skilled at it, in turn reducing the average risk? Now, while I don't know if that is true or not, I assume that, also due to the perceived risk of mountainbiking, only a few people try it. Of these few people some might get injuries or simply dislike the activity and stop after a couple of times, elaving only those skilled at the activity for a vast number of data points that contribute to this statistic. Now thinking about it, maybe the statistic you used as a example accounts for this behavior, but my pessimistic mind kind of doubts that. Not to say that you misinform anyone with this, just an idea to think about. Really love this video btw!

  • nick parry
    nick parry5 ditë më parë

    I try to avoid driving due to risk. Yet I love mountain biking.

  • InfiNorth
    InfiNorth5 ditë më parë

    Please don't become CGPGrey and start making philosophy videos... I just want planes, trains, logistics, and science.

  • BoraCM 39
    BoraCM 395 ditë më parë

    The graph shown at around 10 minutes in is wrong. It is the other way round. Also, human brains are extremely pragmatic, so telling us not to trust ourselves is not very helpful.

  • BoraCM 39

    BoraCM 39

    4 ditë më parë

    @nieooj gotoy What on Earth are you on about?

  • nieooj gotoy

    nieooj gotoy

    5 ditë më parë

    Ok but if you never walk outside you will die from no sunlight and no excersize so not doing that is also a risk

  • Will Banister
    Will Banister5 ditë më parë

    Greetings from the town of Wendover, in Buckinghamshire, England 🤚

  • Kevin Neilson
    Kevin Neilson5 ditë më parë

    Totally expecting never go for a war in Asia... but this will suffice :P

  • Bryan Croteau
    Bryan Croteau5 ditë më parë

    Rule #6: Many risks follow the power law distribution or are chaotic but they are reported using the normal distribution. For example, how many people who died in a war (pure chaos) will be reported along side how many people died from coconuts falling on their heads (normal distribution). The former may increase 1000x in a single year, while the latter will rarely deviate more than 1-2 standard deviations between years. This is often used to report that chaotic things are as risky or less risky than common everyday sources of death, and is one of the most common forms of fraud.

  • YINong Xu
    YINong Xu5 ditë më parë

    "Why do you ever walk outside" Corona:

  • afutla qian
    afutla qian5 ditë më parë

    final assertion that evokes a call to consciousness in May 2020.

  • Kromster80
    Kromster805 ditë më parë

    Seems to be a mistake in numbers. "1 in 600" dies while driving is way off (277mil / 600 = 378k. Do you have 378k deaths on roads annually?)

  • afutla qian

    afutla qian

    5 ditë më parë

    This assumes risk is perceived as absolute. I don’t mountain bike because I think I will likely die, but because I don’t want to injure myself.

  • ThoperSought
    ThoperSought6 ditë më parë

    a lot of people seem to still be irrationally against nuclear power, though

  • Tal Sheynkman
    Tal Sheynkman6 ditë më parë

    Fun fact: the military is one of the safest environments to be in the developed world.

  • A Gamer
    A Gamer6 ditë më parë

    Skip to <a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="222">3:42</a> to start the video.

  • Eric Johnsson
    Eric Johnsson6 ditë më parë

    Human perception and opinion is more than purely comparing risk vs risk. For instance, driving a car brings loads of value to the family owning the car in terms of convenience and time saved. Granted people don't normally think of the risk on a daily basis, but I still think the comparison to mountain biking in school is flawed. Mountain biking doesn't add (in parents' view) much more value than other PE activities, so it's not worth the added risk. Compare driving vs taking the bus though and you have loads of added value. So it's not just about comparing risk vs risk, it HAS to be concidered together with the VALUE of taking the risk. Any thoughts?

  • Tomasz Klisz
    Tomasz Klisz6 ditë më parë

    Covid scamdemic brought me here. Oh lets kill Fauci and Gates. Seriously.

  • Ignacio Irurita
    Ignacio Irurita6 ditë më parë

    Interesting topic. But very subjective as with anything psychological

  • GyroCannon
    GyroCannon6 ditë më parë

    There are a few issues I had with the assumptions made in this video, but the one I disagreed with the most is this: "The value of your first dollar is the same as your millionth" Well, the first dollar I earn goes towards lunch. The millionth gets me unnecessary luxury. I don't think those two are equivalent in any way.

  • Abhiyan Bhandari
    Abhiyan Bhandari6 ditë më parë

    <a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="166">2:46</a> that's a Tesla Cybertruck, I see what you did there 😏

  • RNG-esus
    RNG-esus6 ditë më parë

    I think the intro to the video took a weird perspective. For the sidewalk analogy there was no alternative. The risk that came to mind for me was not whether or not to use the side walk, it was should I use the road or sidewalk to walk on. Obviously the risk of walking on the road is significantly higher than the sidewalk so I'll choose the sidewalk. For the mountain biking one you weighed the risk of death from driving or biking but not injury. I don't know for sure but I'd be willing to bet that the statistics for biking injuries is much higher. Although it would be a tough stat to track cause not everyone is going to report their biking mishaps.

  • nieooj gotoy

    nieooj gotoy

    6 ditë më parë

    Love how he used a Tesla truck as the vehicle representation👍🏼👍🏼 ironically those vehicles will probably change the death rate statistics

  • Fizzy Zailani
    Fizzy Zailani6 ditë më parë

    I think this might be a bad video?! There certainly is fact, value and knowledge... So the overall content should be good, but somehow the video is bad. Like it's not articulate enough to it's point and it brushes over deeper reasoning without consideration. Point: video ought be good, objective and nuanced, but it isn't. It's choppy and open to misinterpretation, which is also risky. P. S. Long time fan, love your work. Some of your work is truly great and informative but this vid falls pretty short. Thus my (hopefully constructive) criticism.

  • nieooj gotoy

    nieooj gotoy

    6 ditë më parë

    This video is riddled with logical fallacies and I've only been watching for 3 minutes

  • Chongo Ok
    Chongo Ok6 ditë më parë

    Ok but if you never walk outside you will die from no sunlight and no excersize so not doing that is also a risk

  • Andrea Foglia
    Andrea Foglia7 ditë më parë

    Okay the fatality rate of driving is higher than mountain biking, but what about injury rate? Possibly parents were more worried about injuries rather than straight up death

  • Chris Doms
    Chris Doms7 ditë më parë

    Your maths on vehicle deaths - 1 in 600 per year - is laughably far off. It's not even close, your LIFETIME risk of dying in a car is still orders of magnitude less than that.

  • jayjay.24
    jayjay.247 ditë më parë

    When comparing life and risk, there is a catch 22 - because when I step out of the door I risk my life, but if I don't, I don't live it.

  • Rage Knight
    Rage Knight7 ditë më parë

    <a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="161">2:41</a> Now we know where Elon Musk got his concept for his Tesla rover.

  • Casey Berner
    Casey Berner7 ditë më parë

    This assumes risk is perceived as absolute. I don’t mountain bike because I think I will likely die, but because I don’t want to injure myself.

  • spaghetti is deadi
    spaghetti is deadi7 ditë më parë

    came for board game, got existentialism.

  • Ronak Nikam
    Ronak Nikam7 ditë më parë

    I hope i don't' die after watching this video this dude made pandemic video before

  • Brandon Waters
    Brandon Waters7 ditë më parë

    <a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="480">8:00</a> railroads is misspelled. "Rairoads"

  • LexieAssassin
    LexieAssassin7 ditë më parë

    "If you kill one, it is a tragedy. If you kill ten million, it is a statistic."

  • kolim jone
    kolim jone7 ditë më parë

    "Why do you walk outside?" I don't. I'm in social quarantine. Checkmate buddy.

  • قيس الجدياني | QGamer_Ar
    قيس الجدياني | QGamer_Ar7 ditë më parë

    You cant compare driving to mountain biking The number of drivers are much higher than bikers

  • kolim jone

    kolim jone

    7 ditë më parë

    more exposure to cows than sharks for a fatality to even occur; I don't think you'd say based on that alone that it's riskier to work with cows than it would be to swim with shark

  • caquitows
    caquitows7 ditë më parë

    Eu fiz uma legenda em português-brasileiro... se alguém puder me ajudar a deixar disponível já está na área de legendas do vídeo...

  • Sam Garcia
    Sam Garcia7 ditë më parë

    I think some risk numbers are just "correlation not causation" figures.

  • Seth Apex
    Seth Apex7 ditë më parë

    well consdering humans will always have some degree of error in our risk management system, our leaders will always over shoot or undershoot the risks of some things.

  • S Edwards
    S Edwards7 ditë më parë

    This video is riddled with logical fallacies and I've only been watching for 3 minutes

  • Michael Harrison
    Michael Harrison7 ditë më parë

    Love how he used a Tesla truck as the vehicle representation👍🏼👍🏼 ironically those vehicles will probably change the death rate statistics

  • ХОРОШО
    ХОРОШО7 ditë më parë

    It's unbelievable most people can't understand such simple things.

  • Captive
    Captive7 ditë më parë

    Waited for risks of climate change as an example

  • stinksmcc
    stinksmcc7 ditë më parë

    <a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="134">2:14</a> wasatch crest!!

  • Joseph Waddell
    Joseph Waddell7 ditë më parë

    Flawed? Really? How about the fact that mountain biking has no useful utility in our lives; while driving is necessary to accomplish nearly everything.... Most of us have jobs away from home. Simple as...

  • psammiad
    psammiad7 ditë më parë

    Walking outside vs staying at home isn't zero-sum - a huge number of accidents happen in the home. The risk of not getting exercise is very high, etc.

  • Jackamomo
    Jackamomo7 ditë më parë

    I went driving along a motorway once. It was more scary to me than a roller coaster as it was clear I was taking my life into my hands. I wish the government would make proper public transport. I don't intend to ever drive again.

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